It never ceases to amaze me how people
literally torture statistics and if I am not mistaken even Al Qaeda
could not better the methods. It is so pervasive that even Bashir Al Asad of
Syria would be comforted knowing that he is not the worst of them
all. Not a single day goes by when 'statistics' are not tortured to
reveal insights that do not exist. They are probably water boarded
multiple times and hung upside down to give these manic torturers (oops ...writers)
something to write about - just to score a point with their media bosses.
Why can't we leave statistics alone?
They never lie. Yet the facade is so ubiquitous, indelible,
and consummate that the average Joe or Jane has literally
no clue, and they buy the story line lock, stock and barrel, pretty much every
time. End result over a period of time is always the same. Blame the
victim. Statistics are unreliable and always to be discounted… is the sad
verdict.
To me this is sacrilegious. There are
very few things in the world as reliable as statistics. We just do not
know what to do with them or to make of them. In our hunger
for insights we torture them to spin the secrets to great mysteries out
of thin air. And then go back and blame the poor fellow.
Take the case of a
recent Australian study that created incredible brouhaha with its
findings. Here is how the media reported the study…
The truth of the finding is very simple:
21% of women under age 30 with 3 kids work outside of home and 41% do so if
they have 2 kids.
This literally tells you nothing.
What about those who are 50 years old? Truth is that the number changes
dramatically if you average out… 55% vs 68%. What about
the confounding effects of education and experience if you have
children early on? What about not wanting to work in the first place?
What about people who want to work later? Why do these 'creative
insight gatherers' conclude that having 3 children is stopping women from working?
Nobody is saying we won’t let you do this or that if you have one more
child. This is not China after all that we are talking about. What
about Sarah Palin with 5 children? What about Michele Bachmann and
Nancy Pelosi with 4 and 5 kids respectively.
Why do people have to scurry around the
water fountain talking about these studies and then stop talking to women with
3 children right after the study is released. If they hear 3 children…
they don’t even ask where you work? This is ridiculous.
I call this the "Glory
Theory". It is my glorious theory of the day to pronounce and
proclaim….what ever gets the fancy of the media.
The problem does not stop at that.
Statistical torture is responsible for a whole gamut of useless
books on business and self help. Unfortunately, the so called
average Joe or Jane is not trained enough to discern the
right from the extrapolation or interpolation. Be warned… statistics
do not like Pseudo Statisticians do.
But more reasonably, you can make a bad
choice based on faulty logic and you could be in god’s dog house for a long
time. In the present times there is a
lot of statistical evidence for almost everything. There is no reason not to put on the seat
belt or drink and drive or not engage with a recruiter, or not fire the non
performers, or not invest in processes… the list can go on and on. No wonder 90% of all businesses fail with in
10 year of starting up.
Published by The 8020Strategy Group,